CBOT SP500 Futures : 1309 is key

The chart below is a 720 minute (half a global trading day) view of CBOT S&P 500 mini futures, with it just coming off to key trend support which has held the rally since early December 2010. Obviously a failure here would be big news, and point to a much needed correction in US stocks after their almost non stop linear march north of late.

And yes we think Libya will be the catalyst, so for now any bounce from the current 1318 or so should fail between 1322 and 1326. We are using 1309 as the key breakdown point for S&P 500 minis, and if this comes with NYMEX crude spiking strongly above the 100 mark, then the pullback scenario will have 1280-1283 as the target.

If however 1309 holds regardless of what happens in the Middle East, then the case for a raging bull run to 1360 or so will be solid.



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