How to play a Gadhafi departure to Riyadh
February 23, 2011 Leave a comment
The possibility of Gadhafi leaving Tripoli for Riyadh no doubt is one that would do wonders for the SET on Thursday, or even Friday.
If there is a coup and the protestors claim a victory, gold, oil and the Dollar will sell-off heavily, and the SET will probably close above 1000 on strong buying.
This is the optimistic scenario, and one that is possible. After all Gadhafi will probably find Havana or the Venezuelan Caribbean coast even more fun than ruling 8 million Arabs. Riyadh less so, albeit with an increasing number deposed dictators to keep him company.
So, how to play it if indeed he fires up his 747 and departs? Short gold and silver, Buy copper. Sell oil, sell the USD against pretty much anything, buy US , Asia ex Japan stocks or Index futures like the Kospi, German DAX, and for Thailand the TFEX futures should move to 720 (currently 686 for S50H11) Now isn’t that bullish?
Trouble is we think chaos will unfold.