Libya : News flow suggests chaos

We are a little surprised with the relative calm on markets today, because the Libyan situation looks as if it will blow up today. They information we have points to an army coup attempt on Gaddafi. The would-be coup players have asked the USA to force a no fly zone over the country because they fear air attack when they advance on Tripoli. This is the crux of the matter, so if and when such support is forthcoming from the US, the end game should begin to unravel.

We also hear Gaddafi will go on the offensive today, so the propensity for chaos and 100+oil seems to us just too high to ignore – as the markets have done so far today.

We are out of the market for nearly all short term positions, and would like to thank the buyers this morning for driving the SET up beyond expectations. Maybe we are too bearish, but from the information crossing our screens, we very much doubt the worst is over in Libya and prefer to err on the side of caution until news flow improves.

Gaddafi’s son, belligerent, condescending, foolish….we suspect he will swell Saudi’s population over the next few days when he flees Tripoli.



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