NYMEX Crude (April / CL1J)

We gave 102-103 as the target last week for NYMEX Crude, but for the week ahead we suggest waiting for a break below 95 or above 100 before re-entry.

Trade View
• The spreads between NYMEX and Brent crude and indeed Dubai and Omani reached multi year extremes of late, with the North American blend a laggard of massive proportions.
• The geopolitical situation is such we think it’s a toss of a coin as to where it will go this week. As such we await a strong move one way or the other – above 100 or below 95.
• For VST traders, CL1J has key support at US$ 96.20 to 96.50. If this range holds Monday it will be a mildly bullish sign, but as noted above, a breakout above 100 is needed to turn it bullish and place 105-106 as the next target.
• If indeed NYMEX hits 105, Brent should spike to US$ 123 or so.

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