SET Index : Odds favour a rally…but only just.

The SET is currently trapped within a channel with 1040 at the resistance end, 950 as key support and the 1000 mark as the dividing line between bull or bear control.

We might be wrong, but it seems the SET will break one way or the other by next week, so if you go by the bullish scenario citing earnings, bad news fatigue, maybe a spot of pre election ramping, then a triple top at worst, and possibly a new high for the SET to nearer 1080 may be your call. The bears might contest oil will spike to levels that stocks can’t handle, that the SET does not yet have the institutional volume support to rally strongly and maybe mention all is not well in the Arab world, which warrants a pullback to nearer 900-920.

Our view? The odds favour a rally – albeit not by much. Trading against Bernanke’s tsunami of cash is hard to justify.

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