NYMEX Crude (April) CL1J

Momentum is building with the rally above 100 seeing it move just short of the 105-106 target given last week…but there’s time yet.

Trade View
• The worry for the week ahead goes beyond the loss of 1m barrels per day from Libya so far, and centers in on Bahrain and Saudi. In short, if the planned rallies in Saudi go ahead this Friday, a move to 110-111, possibly 115-117 could easily occur.
• We are of the view that an issue or two in Saudi will derail the global equity bulls, and could spook the market to the extent that even Bernanke wont be able to solve.
• April crude has initial support at 103 to 103.50,  and what looks like quite strong support from 100 to 100.50

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