NYMEX Crude (June / CL1M) : Wait for a break one way or the other
Use US$ 108.80 as first support for June Crude and US$ 111 as first serious resistance for the week ahead.
• Although news fatigue re the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is an issue, there is room yet for more bad news from the Arab world, we are of mixed feeling re oil for coming days and prefer to wait for a breakout move (with supporting news) at either the support at 10.8.80 or resistance at 111 before considering short term trading here.
• The June contract (CL1M) has an initial cluster of VST support from 109.20 to nearer 109.50, and if this range holds on Monday it will be somewhat bullish and could well see a move to the 111 mark, possibly even 112 again.
• For crude to take out the recent high at 113.88 we suspect the USD will need to head to 74 and change, coupled with some additional bad news, be it the Arabs, Nigerians or indeed some fresh bad news.