SET Index : Female PM means we’ll see the market hit a new high for the year
July 17, 2011 Leave a comment
We are of the view the SET will rally to nearer 1140 if the lady becomes PM this week and a PT cabinet is formed. Anything less, even a ‘delay’ and such a move will have to wait.
If indeed all (or nearly) all goes well for PT this week, then the Baht will strengthen to 29.7 or so, possibly a tad further, and the SET will very likely retest the April 21 high at 1113.
Bad news on the political front will probably see a decline to 1040-1045.
A move to as high as 1160 is possible if US markets rally on a compromise deal over the deficit ceiling, which should be the case unless the totally insane GOP continue to be nasty to Obama, We are not a fan his policies, but this time he has been reasonable, so a conclusion to this stupid but highly contentious issue should be enough to propel the Thai market to new highs for the year – unless of course red cards fly and the lady doesn’t get the big seat.