SET Index : A Scenario for Monday
September 25, 2011 Leave a comment
There should be a bit more of a bounce Monday, but if there is not, 920 if not 900 will be revisited sooner than we thought.
A bounce however will likely struggle to go far because the selling volume on Friday was heavy in the likes of the big cap energy stocks and indeed the banking sector. This should limit upside on the bounce, with the SET Index expected to struggle as it approaches 978-980 or so. If it stalls at just 970-972 that will be a negative to start the week, so be quick to sell if selling pressure is moderate to high.
If Western markets rebound on Monday night there could be a move to nearer 990 or so, but risks remain very high and volume actions on the SET worries us.
In some ways it would be better just to have 2 or 3 more big sell-offs and have the Index down at 880 or so, then at least we cold expect a healthy multi-day technical rebound. Anyway, sub 900 levels on the SET are highly likely now, and as we said recently in a comment on the SET 50 Index, it could easily go to 540-550, even 520…with a 40% chance it falls to 470-480.