Forecasts for the next 100 days

The following forecasts are extracts from a longer study of Thai stocks recently published for our private clients overseas. We thought it timely, after a long absence, as noted earlier due to the one way nature of the market since Q4 last year, to provide a view as to our best gestimates for a number of stocks and indices.
Treat it as you will, ignore it if you like, but as those who have followed our work over the years will know, our accuracy is high, and if nothing else it might give you food for thought.

The analysis is based on a view looking out about 3-4 months – let’s call it 100 days from now.

The format is simple and will be as the following examples for the SET, SET50, BANK and FIN Sector Indices.

We will post many individual stock forecasts in this format over the next one week.

SET Index : 100 day forecast (Currently at 1182)

Most likely scenario : 980-1020, given no more QE at least until after June
Bullish Scenario : 1260-1320, if the Fed announce QE3 at their April 25th meeting
Bearish Scenario : 900-940, if something bad happens, such as a major political issue like a dissolution of parliament – for whatever reason.

SET 50 : 100 day forecast (Currently at 831)

Most likely scenario : 720-740
Bullish Scenario : 880-910
Bearish Scenario : 650-670

BANK Sector : 100 day forecast (Currently at 450)

Most likely scenario : 380-390
Bullish Scenario : 480-505
Bearish Scenario : 340-350

FIN Sector : 100 day forecast (Currently at 917)

Most likely scenario : 790-815
Bullish Scenario : 860
Bearish Scenario : 750-760

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